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What's been the true impact of the so-called 'War on Terror'?
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the U.S launched its so-called war on
terror in the wake of 9 11. invasions of
Afghanistan and Iraq followed with huge
loss of life instability spread across
many parts of the Middle East so what's
hello there and welcome to the program
I'm Nastasia Tay now after U.S President
George W bush launched what he labeled
the war on terror in 2001 for people in
countries like Afghanistan and Iraq
years of violence death destruction and
political instability were to follow
thousands were also detained and
illegally taken to other countries many
tortured or subjected to brutal
treatment and held for years without
trial resistance grew and pushed the U.S
and NATO out of Afghanistan two years
ago a new investigation from a top U.S
University says more than 4.5 million
people died directly or indirectly from
the so-called war on terror we'll be
discussing its Legacy with the report's
author and our guests in just a few
moments but first this report from
Alexandra Byers on how it all began
it's been more than two decades since
followed by two devastating and costly
Wars in November 2001 the U.S led an
International Coalition to invade
Afghanistan accusing the Taliban of
harboring Al-Qaeda Fighters it launched
a huge bombing campaign and a ground operation
operation
tens of thousands of people were killed
in 2003 the U.S attacked Iraq as part of
its so-called war on terror accusing its
leader of stockpiling weapons of mass destruction
Saddam Hussein and his regime will stop
at nothing
were never found major combat operations
in Iraq have ended
in the Battle of Iraq
the United States and our allies have prevailed
prevailed
George Bush's Declaration of victory was
made before the worst violence in Iraq
was yet to come foreign the legacy of
both invasions brought disastrous
consequences for people in the region
but the so-called war on terror was
never declared over and wounds it
inflicted not healed [Music]
[Music]
a new study by the costs of War project
at Brown University estimates the post-9
11 Wars and their ongoing impact have
scope of the report includes conflicts
in places like Pakistan Syria Somalia
and Yemen there are no official
statistics for the numbers who died in
the so-called war on terror but the
report says there are more indirect
deaths than Combat fatalities
indirect deaths are blamed on things
like the breakdown of economic
environmental and psychological conditions
conditions
more than 20 years since the war in
Afghanistan the Taliban are back in
power after a hasty U.S and NATO
withdrawal almost two years ago
International donors have Frozen Afghan
Bank Reserves and its health system is
on the brink of collapse the report asks
in a place like Afghanistan can any
death today be considered unrelated to
the U.S war
and what long-lasting impact will it
continue to have on these countries
Alexandra Byers for Inside Story [Music]
well let's now bring in our guests in
New York Stephanie saval the co-director
of the costs of war and a non-partisan
research project based at the Watson
Institute for international and public
affairs at Brown University and an
author of the report in Manchester in
the United Kingdom Ruba Ali al-hasani A
postdoctoral Research fellow at
Lancaster University and also co-founder
of the Iraqi women academics Network and
in Bethesda Maryland Michael O'Hanlon a
senior fellow and director of research
and foreign policy at the Brookings
institution a very warm welcome to all
of you and thanks for joining us today
on Inside Story Steph this is your
report I so I'll start with you more
than 4.5 million deaths that's a really
startling number it's obviously
something very difficult to quantify how
did you get to that number
yeah this is something that uh the cost
of War project has been working on for
years actually I've been I've built on
the work of colleagues of mine at the
cost of War project for a long time my
colleague Nita Crawford has generated an
uh regularly updated estimate of what
direct depth so these are people who are
killed through the weapons of war
Through Fire the actual combat of war
that now is up to 906
000 to 937 000 that's the range that she
estimates of direct deaths so my report
Builds on that it uses a ratio from the
Geneva declaration Secretariat that uh
current day Wars there's an estimate of
about uh four indirect deaths for every
direct death
um I dug in very deeply to research
across many fields including
epidemiology and public health research
and basically this is the best latest
information that's out there ideally in
an ideal scenario there would be teams
of researchers on the ground local
researchers doing excess mortality
studies at going you know house house to
house doing a surveys of you know who's
died in the past X number of years to
get a better more precise figure but in
the absence of those studies and those
are really hard to do in war zones
there's a you know absence of birth and
death uh certificates and and all of
those sorts of basic uh Census Data
um this kind of ratio is the is the best
that's out there so um that was how we
generated the 4.5 trillion million
figure well the so-called war on terror
itself is a bit of a nebulous concept
can I ask Stephanie how you chose the
conflicts that you've included
yes absolutely this is something also
drawing on this cost of War project
framing so this is a you know over 60
Scholars at this point from around the
world what we've done is we've said you
know the U.S counterterrorism has played
a role not just in Afghanistan Pakistan
and Iraq
um those were you know the U.S led Wars
in those places but also a very
significant role in Syria Yemen Somalia Libya
Libya
um and other places increasingly the
footprint of the U.S so-called war on
terror uh it continues and um so this is
really a framing that tries to look very
comprehensively at you know of course
these conflicts are incredibly complex
we're not saying that the US is the only
responsible party were merely pointing
to the fact that there's been an
intensification of the violence as a
result of U.S counterterrorism efforts
and this report is really an attempt to
come to terms and grapple with that
sense of responsibility sure ruber I
understand you were born in the diaspora
but you've been working with people in
Iraq on the ground there for many years
no the numbers are not surprising
they're damning if anything uh and I am
tempted to think that the numbers may be
even higher uh that these may be
um for the lack of a better word
conservative maybe or just like
Stephanie said that you know there are
many deaths that are unrecorded there
are many missing people who are unrecorded
unrecorded
um I'm currently working on a project on
enforced disappearances in Iraq so
that's another issue that has been um
um tremendously
tremendously problematic
problematic
aspect of life that many Iraqis have had
to endure since 2003 so the numbers make
sense and I assume that they're much
more especially in countries like
Afghanistan and in Syria now with its
own conflict going on
uh Michael turning to you I know that
you've previously said that the
so-called war on terror for all of its
failures has had a number of limited
successes accidental as some of them may
actually be but that success as you've
described it I understand has been
specifically around preventing attacks
on American soil but this is then the
trade-off right 4.5 million deaths first
of all let me congratulate Stephanie and
her colleagues at the Watson Center
they've done very good work over the
years reminding us that we have to take
a broader perspective at understanding
the consequences of war and I generally
agree with most of the methodologies we
can talk about some specifics in a
minute but let me make that point second
you're correct to argue or to to
summarize the writings that I've done
to say that when we think about a
22-year campaign against you know
salafism or however you'd like to
describe the broader Al-Qaeda and
related movements around the world the
United States and its Western allies
have generally been fairly fortunate in
that the number of subsequent attacks on
American or even European soil has been
quite modest compared to the fears we
all had after 9 11 and of course there
have been some attacks most notably some
of the Isis attacks in Europe in the
middle part of the last decade but
generally speaking if you want to do a
plus minus cost benefit assessment of
the so-called war on terror which may
not be a good term but you know is often
still employed then I think we have to
say that Western countries have done
pretty well at protecting themselves
certainly from anything like the
catastrophic Terror we saw on 9 11 and
then even in Spain in 2004 or London in
2005 some of the other attacks sort of
in Bali Indonesia in 2002 but I you do
very well and Stephanie does very well
as well as our colleague in London to
remind people and of course in the
broader Middle East people need no
reminding that these wars have had huge
human consequences and that war itself
because it breaks down Society because
it breaks down Health Care it impedes
proper nutrition uh it impedes economic
growth it therefore contributes to a lot
of indirect deaths that wind up
outnumbering direct combat deaths and
Stephanie's right just to remind people
it's roughly this four to one ratio
that's a very crude and rough number
it's a it's an average across many
different countries many different
conflicts but the general message is
correct that war leads to far more
indirect consequences than we even see
directly on our TV screens and that's a
tragedy of conflict it should make
anyone wary of war the the one last
thing I'll say however is that bearing
in mind that the Iraq of Saddam Hussein
was hardly a peaceful place bearing in
mind that the Afghanistan of the Taliban
was hardly a successful country and is
hardly successful today that these
excess deaths that we're talking about
often would have been occurring even
without the U.S led interventions and I
know Stephanie is quick to underscore
that she's not simply blaming the United
States or its broader war on terror for
all of these casualties but I do want to
underscore that when we think about
excess deaths having looked at again a
rock under Saddam in his quarter Century
of terrible rule or the Taliban in
Afghanistan with the kind of Health Care
Systems and oppression of women's rights
and limitations on economic progress
that they imposed uh it's not as if
these places would have had peaceful and
happy Futures if they had been left on
their own trajectories uh the last point
I would say however is that Libya
strikes me as a place that probably
probably would have done better without
us that probably would have truly been
despite Muammar Gaddafi's limitations
and and his own barbaric accident times
against his own people Libya was a
semi-functioning country during his Rule
and it's been worse since our 2011
intervention so again we have to bear
down Case by case but I agree with the
overall thrust I want to bring Ruba in
here because it looked very much like
she wanted to respond to you there Michael
Michael
yes thank you
um I think the key point and what
Michael has said is that the West has
been capable of protecting itself that's
the key word itself
um because since 2003 not just Iraq and
Afghanistan but the entire Middle East
and parts of uh South West Asia have been
been
unprotected and have been violated over
and over in various ways whether it's
murder or rape or torture or continued
uh Legacy and reverberations of this
violence that continues in many various
forms until this day children are born
in Fallujah and Boston Iraq with
congenital birth defects because of
white phosphorus use and depleted
uranium in Iraq those are you know
weapons like West phosphorus is an illegal
illegal
use sorry it's an illegal chemical
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